Energy Insecurity and Crisis Diplomacy: Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Behavior in the Iran–Gulf Strategic Conflict (2020–2026)

(By-Amina Sardar )

 

Energy Insecurity and Crisis Diplomacy: Pakistan's Foreign Policy Behavior in the Iran–Gulf Strategic Conflict (2020–2026)

Analysts, while considering foreign policy of Pakistan, take into account security coalitions, religious empathies or great-power politics but energy insecurity, which is the foremost component of Islamabad's political conduct sparks very little of their interest. Pakistan foreign policy is largely determined by preservation of its struggling economy and its fuel supplies as evidenced by role it played during current Iran–Gulf crisis.

Energy crisis, in modern political landscape of low as well as high income countries, is challenge not only for economy but also for internal peace and security alongside its immense contribution to foreign policy. Energy security is the sustained provision of energy at a budget-friendly cost as explained by International Energy Agency (IEA).Shifts in global power trade and prices guide and curtail policy options and political decisions of power-reliant states like Pakistan. There could be no bigger and compelling proof to this than the way regional conflict of Iran-Gulf turmoil directed International policy planning of Pakistan and persuaded it to harmonize conflicting regional goals with maintenance of its power demands.

Irrespective of the fact, that Pakistan enjoys homegrown energy supplies,it hugely depends on foreign energy imports of Gulf states and is a major contributor to their fuel exports. During fiscal year 2025, Pakistan imported 12.53 million metric tons of petroleum products worth of $8.4 billion.  Overall Pakistan depends on imports for 70-80% of its oil, 100% of its LNG from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz, the main route for Pakistan's oil and LNG imports, which carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day and 20% of global LNG trade, making it a critical chokepoint for Pakistan's energy security.

Consequently, this heavy dependence leave Pakistan to external shocks originating from the gulf region with direct implications for Pakistan's economic stability which is already fragile, widening fiscal deficits, increasing inflationary pressures, national security and independent foreign policy decisions. The gravity of this vulnerability is evident in the current regional conflict, which Bloomberg and International Energy Agency assessments termed the current oil supply disruption as the largest in the history of the oil market as the war has hit 7.5% of global output and an even bigger swath of exports.

 

Pakistan acquired highly diplomatic stance during intensified Iran and Gulf conflict. Pakistan keeps close religious ties with Gulf royal states which are home for millions of Pakistani international employees alongside offering appreciable monetary aid. The mutual collaboration and capital allocation suggests stronger affiliations with Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, if viewed from power-politics approach. But nonetheless, to boost cross-border integration, territorial security and energy alliance, it strives for keeping harmonious ties with its neighboring brother Islamic state Iran. Even so, these are not the only factors which influence its decision of favoring one over the other during state of political catastrophe.

From idealist perspective, this seems more plausible when energy crisis is viewed as strong factor influencing international ties. Pakistan Vision 2025, National Security Policy 2022–2026 and National Electricity Plan 2023–2027 clearly demonstrate that sustainable energy security is no longer a theortical belief rather legally validated principal policy goals .When considering energy imports via Strait of Hormuz, which is currently narrowing policy alternatives ,governing leadership needs to focus on international benefits in conjunction with appraisal of vulnerabilities related to supply breakdowns and growing energy expenses.

Pakistan strategic stance during Iran-Gulf tension is less suggestive of political uncertainity, rather it seems to be part of threat handling tactics. Pakistan's calls for mediation and de-escalation are not simple conventional pledges to peace, instead it reflects a pragmatic diplomatic effort to protect national economic and energy security by reducing the risk of regional conflict that may jeopardize essential energy sources. In this way, national economic interests were safeguarded through diplomacy.

Pakistan's response to the Iran–Gulf crisis reflects a broader pattern observed in energy-dependent states. Instead of relying on political inclinations and religious empathies, Islamabad employed a practical threat-management tactics intended to protect national economic interests and preserve continuous energy provisions. The observation of New Delhi and Japan case is also an evidence that regardless of enormous influence from the West both placed their national preferences ahead of ideological accord and made policy adjustments intended to defend national economic priorities. In the first scenario, during the Russia-Ukraine war as part of a realistic scheme, New Delhi maintained their import of Russian oil. Correspondingly, Japan's reaction to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo illustrates how energy turbulence can affect and limit foreign policy sovereignty. Japan altered its foreign policy approach toward Arab countries for the purpose of ensuring availability of energy resources after encountering severe energy susceptibilities.

This approach is very much in line with the notion of economic security, where states give precedence to security and endurance amid external challenges. In addition to this,it is clearly indicative of the truth that energy provision is a leading factor in shaping foreign policy coupled with strategic security concerns, ideology and coalitions..

The strategic stance adopted by Pakistan during Iran Gulf tension is clear indication of the fact that it believes that deterioration of their relations will affect cost of imports, other escalating prices and will present many more hurdles in way of economic restoration. Therefore, Pakistan’s strategic stance appears more to be an economic need than a political priority.

Pakistan therefore needs a Shift from Reactive Crisis Management to Preventive Energy Security.As The most effective long-term solution is not simply diplomatic balancing but reducing structural dependence itself by drawing lessons from China's long-term approach to energy security. Pakistan should broaden its energy partnerships, reduce excessive dependence on a limited group of suppliers, expanding domestic energy production, strengthening strategic reserves and accelerating renewable energy development. Through these efforts Pakistan can ensure that future regional crises have a limited impact on its foreign policy autonomy.

Energy insecurity is not the only factor shaping Pakistan's foreign policy nor does it overriding the other traditional strategic considerations such as military etc. However, Pakistan's dependence on imported oil and LNG increased the risks associated with regional instability. As a result, Pakistan preferred neutrality, diplomatic balancing and calls for de-escalation during the Iran-Gulf conflict. Therefore, energy insecurity emerged as an important factor influencing Pakistan's foreign policy behavior during the crisis.